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Foz do Iguaçu · Ciudad del Este · Puerto IguazúSaturday, October 3, 2026US dollar R$ 5,22₲1.000 R$ 0,89$1.000 R$ 3,43Foz now 26°C cloudy
Foz do Iguaçu · Ciudad del Este · Puerto IguazúSaturday, October 3, 2026US dollar R$ 5,22₲1.000 R$ 0,89$1.000 R$ 3,43Foz now 26°C cloudy
Transparency of the numbers
The border movement forecast comes from real data, weekday, holidays in all 3 countries, weather and river flow. Here we show the history, the accuracy (forecast vs measured) and the open methodology. No black box.
Forecast movement history
Series recorded 3×/day, the basis of our predictive capability.
Validation against public visitation 2025
| Month | Forecast (2024) | Actual (2025) | Match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | high | high | ✓ |
| Feb | low | low | ✓ |
| Mar | low | low | ✓ |
| Apr | low | low | ✓ |
| May | low | low | ✓ |
| Jun | low | low | ✓ |
| Jul | high | low | ✗ |
| Aug | high | high | ✓ |
| Sep | low | low | ✓ |
| Oct | high | high | ✓ |
| Nov | high | high | ✓ |
| Dec | high | high | ✓ |
We test the forecast against another year's actual: the seasonality learned in 2024 predicted 2025 and matched 11 of 12 months (high × low). Compared against Foz Airport passengers (ANAC), a source independent of the forecast. Validates the seasonal/weekly PATTERN, not the hour-by-hour count (that isn't public). source: ANAC (open data) · cross-checked with ICMBio/PNI and Itaipu → · open source →
Forecast accuracy · forecast × actual
3 reports: reports received. The rate appears once forecast and actual coincide on the same day (updates on the next capture).
Forecast (3×/day, from day, hour and weather) × actual (community “how is it now?” reports, day's modal level). 60-day rolling window, community reports, not an official count. how we calculate →
Live scoreboard
The system locks next month's air-traffic forecast BEFORE ANAC publishes, then scores it. A forecast that proves right can't be tuned in hindsight.
| Target month | Forecast | Actual (ANAC) | Type | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun/2026 | low season | low season(228,021) | live · partial | ✓ |
| May/2026 | low season | high season(238,424) | prior-years test · partial | ✗ |
| Apr/2026 | low season | low season(228,180) | prior-years test · partial | ✓ |
| Mar/2026 | low season | low season(228,101) | prior-years test · partial | ✓ |
| Feb/2026 | low season | low season(218,709) | prior-years test · partial | ✓ |
| Jan/2026 | high season | high season(248,673) | prior-years test · partial | ✓ |
| Dec/2025 | high season | high season(225,362) | prior-years test | ✓ |
| Nov/2025 | high season | high season(206,157) | prior-years test | ✓ |
| Oct/2025 | high season | high season(206,044) | prior-years test | ✓ |
| Sep/2025 | low season | low season(183,111) | prior-years test | ✓ |
| Aug/2025 | high season | high season(196,499) | prior-years test | ✓ |
| Jul/2025 | high season | low season(185,157) | prior-years test | ✗ |
| Jun/2025 | low season | low season(167,266) | prior-years test | ✓ |
| May/2025 | low season | low season(169,318) | prior-years test | ✓ |
| Apr/2025 | low season | low season(166,987) | prior-years test | ✓ |
| Mar/2025 | low season | low season(177,165) | prior-years test | ✓ |
| Feb/2025 | low season | low season(178,120) | prior-years test | ✓ |
| Jan/2025 | high season | high season(224,906) | prior-years test | ✓ |
Scores the seasonal DIRECTION (high × low season), validated against Foz Airport passengers (ANAC, an independent source not fed into the model). Honest test = what the model would have predicted using prior years only. how we calculate → · ANAC → · open source →
Proprietary history · grows every day
collecting since 18 Jun 2026
A history that only grows: nothing is deleted or overwritten. Each day becomes a record you can't recover backwards, forecast vs actual, accuracy, reports and questions. It's what accumulates and can't be copied.
↓ download series (CSV · CC BY)